History Suggests Bitcoin Likely to Catch Up as it Again Lags S&P 500

Much has been made of bitcoin’s underperformance to gold — which Tuesday hit yet another in a long series of records, crossing above $3,800 per ounce for the first time. But gold isn’t the only asset partying while bitcoin stagnates under $115,000.

U.S. stocks have also been notching record highs on what seems to be a daily basis, including bellwether S&P 500 index, which is perched just below the 6,700 level.

Even with BTC struggling of late, the world’s largest crypto remains in a bull market and this isn’t the first time this cycle its performance has diverged from that of the S&P 500.

The first divergence occurred between March and July of 2024. During this period, the S&P 500 climbed from around 4,000 to 4,600, while bitcoin declined from just under $30,000 to $25,000.

The second divergence took place later that year when the S&P 500 rallied from 5,200 to 6,000 from April to October. with only a brief summer pause. Bitcoin, however, did not follow, with its rally not beginning until November (alongside the presidential election results).

As for this most recent divergence, the S&P 500 since May has moved steadily higher, while bitcoin has consolidated within the $110,000 to $120,000 range. Bitcoin did break to new all time highs in August, but those gains were quickly reversed, with BTC returning to the low end of its previous range.

History suggests that while bitcoin and the S&P 500 often move in the same general direction, they periodically diverge for extended periods. The data from at least this current cycle suggests that bitcoin is likely to catch up to gold.