Analysis: Market Is Undervaluing the Possibility Cardano (ADA) ETF Is Delayed Until 2026

The SEC finally cleared the road to fast-track altcoin ETFs, but a government shutdown may keep applications for a Cardano (ADA) ETF stuck in limbo until 2026 – and bettors on Polymarket are undervaluing that.

After scrapping 19b-4 filings and approving “generic listing standards” to fast-track altcoin ETFs, traders are betting 90% odds that ADA’s ETF approval would arrive by year-end 2025.

But with a 36% chance of a month-long government shutdown, that 10% “No” side may prove the smarter play as even “absurdly fast” approvals can’t happen when the lights are out.

According to the SEC’s contingency plan, only about 390 of its 4,200 employees remain on duty, focused entirely on emergencies and market monitoring rather than new product approvals.

ETF issuers can still submit filings through the EDGAR system, the contingency plan says, but no staff are available to review, comment on, or accelerate them. With all IPO reviews already halted, the same logjam now threatens to stall the wave of altcoin ETFs that were expected to move forward under the SEC’s new fast-track listing framework introduced in September.

A scan of government shutdown-related contracts shows that Polymarket bettors see federal operations resuming around late October or early November, with roughly October 30 as the consensus expectation.

For the SEC, that timeline means at least three more weeks without the staff needed to review filings or advance pending crypto ETFs like Cardano’s, and there are 89 other crypto ETF applications also on the docket, plus the usual assortment of approvals needed for traditional finance products.

Even if the agency reopens by then, it will have only about eight working weeks before the Christmas slowdown, with Thanksgiving further cutting into that window.

In extended date contracts, Polymarket traders now assign roughly a 31% chance that the shutdown stretches into November, approaching the 35-day record set in 2018–19.

A lapse of that length would leave the SEC with even less time to clear a growing backlog that already includes halted IPO reviews, delayed enforcement cases, and the newly streamlined but still pending crypto ETF filings.

There’s certainly a chance that the ADA ETF gets approved by the end of the year. It’s impossible to say where it is on the list of considerations before agency staff, but it’d be fair to say it’s high on the list.

At the same time, considering the deadlock in Washington reflected in Polymarket odds, there’s also a chance that this drags on.

So that 11% chance the ADA ETF isn’t approved in 2025? It may not be 100%, but the odds of a delay are clearly higher than the market suggests.